Introducing Polls: Binary & Categorical Prediction Markets on Oriole Insights

We are excited to announce the launch of a new market on Oriole Insights: Polls — Binary & Categorical Prediction Markets. In anticipation of this release, we invite our predictors to actively participate in testing new functionality.

Show your predicting skills now in the context of the real events of the crypto world and the financial sector!

👉https://app.orioleinsights.io/polls

Your engagement is crucial in refining the platform, and to show our appreciation, we have prepared a Galaxy Campaign to reward the most active participants.

Galxe Campaign 1,500 USDT & 1,000,000+ ORI Prize Pool

Oriole Insights is excited to launch the Galxe Campaign from Nov 25 to Jan 25. Participate in one-time, regular, and daily tasks to earn loyalty points and compete for rewards.

Reach 10,000 points to qualify for the $1,500 USDT prize pool (30 winners at $50 each) and over 1M+ ORI rewards based on leaderboard standings:

Top 1–10: 15,000 ORI each
Top 11–50: 7,500 ORI each
Top 51–150: 5,000 ORI each
Top 151–300: 1000 ORI each

👉https://app.galxe.com/quest/OrioleInsights/GCF1btVeNd

Why Polls?

In the context of prediction markets, Binary & Categorical Prediction Markets serve as a dynamic tool for predicting future events based on collective intelligence.

By allowing users to predict outcomes of various events, Polls harness the crowd’s wisdom to generate insightful data about market sentiment and probabilities.

This market addresses an interactive and engaging platform where users can apply their knowledge to predicting real-world events, particularly in the fast-paced cryptocurrency and financial markets.

Polls Mechanics

1) Binary Prediction Markets

Each Binary Prediction Poll has only two possible prediction options. Users can choose only one option to predict. For example:

Will Project Alpha conduct a TGE by the end of 2024? Options: Yes / No.
Which coin will have a higher market capitalization by the end of 2024? Options: Bitcoin (BTC) / Ethereum (ETH).

2) Categorical Prediction Markets

These Polls have multiple prediction options, and users select one or several options as their predictions. For example:

Which token from the list below is to be listed on Binance first? Options: Token Delta / Token Epsilon / Token Zeta.
How FED will change the Interest Rate in September 2024? Options: 50+ bps increase / 25 bps increase / no change / 25 bps decrease / 50+ bps decrease

Topics of Binary and Categorical Prediction Markets

The Polls Prediction Markets cover a wide range of topics, primarily focusing on the cryptocurrency field but also encompassing significant financial indicators. Here are some key topics featured:

1. Token Generation Events (TGE) & Listings

Predict whether a project will conduct a TGE or list its token by a certain date. This focuses on forecasting new token launches and listings, impacting a project’s visibility and liquidity.

Example: “Will Project Alpha have a TGE in 2025?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “When will Project Beta conduct its TGE?”
Options: Q1 2024, Q2 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Not in 2024
Example: “Will Project Gamma list its token on at least one Tier-1 CEX by June 30, 2024?”
Options: Yes / No

2. Price Predictions

Predict whether the price of a specific token will be above or below a certain value on a specific date.

Example: “Will Bitcoin (BTC) be above $70,000 by the end of 2024?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “What will Ethereum’s price range be at the end of 2024?”
Options: Below $2,000, Between $2,000 and $3,000, Between $3,000 and $4,000, Above $4,000
Example: “Will Ripple (XRP) price exceed $1 by the end of Q2 2024?”
Options: Yes / No

3. Launch Events

Predict the launch of products, protocols, staking platforms, DAOs, testnets, or mainnets by a certain date.

Example: “Will Project Delta launch its mainnet by the end of 2024?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “When will Project Epsilon release its staking platform?”
Options: Before March 31, 2024; Between April 1 and June 30, 2024; Between July 1 and September 30, 2024; After September 30, 2024
Example: “When will Project Zeta launch its mainnet?”
Options: Q1 2024, Q2 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Not in 2024

4. Retrodrop and Airdrops

Predict whether a project will perform an airdrop or how it will distribute tokens based on user activity.

Example: “Will Project Theta announce an airdrop to early adopters by May 2024?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “Which project will perform an airdrop to its community first?”
Options: Project Iota, Project Kappa, Project Lambda
Example: “How many tokens from the total supply will Project Alpha allocate for a Retrodrop?”
Options: 0%-5%, 5%-10%, 10%-25%, 25% and higher

5. Market Capitalization

Predict whether a cryptocurrency’s market cap will reach a certain value or be in a specific range by a specific date.

Example: “Will Ethereum’s market cap exceed $500 billion by the end of 2024?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “Which cryptocurrency will have the highest market cap by the end of 2024?”
Options: Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL)
Example: “Will the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpass $3 trillion by March 2025?”
Options: Yes / No

6. Hack Events

Predict whether a project, protocol, or exchange will experience a security breach by a certain date.

Example: “Which project will be hacked next?”
Options: Project Alpha, Project Beta, Project Gamma
Example: “How much money will the biggest hack cost in 2025?”
Options: Less than $50 million, Between $50 million and $100 million, Between $100 million and $200 million, More than $200 million
Example: “Will any major cryptocurrency exchange (Top 10 by CMC) experience a hack by the end of 2024?”
Options: Yes / No

7. Adoption Metrics

Predict whether a project will achieve certain adoption milestones, such as user numbers or active wallets.

Example: “Will Project Iota reach 1 million active users by the end of 2024?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “When will Project Kappa achieve 500,000 daily transactions?”
Options: Q1 2024, Q2 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2024, After 2024
Example: “Will Project Lambda have more than 100,000 active wallets by June 30, 2024?”
Options: Yes / No

8. Competition

Predict which coin from a given list will have the highest growth or decline.

Example: “Which of these tokens will have the highest percentage gain by the end of 2024?”
Options: Token Kappa, Token Lambda, Token Mu
Example: “Will Token Omicron outperform Token Pi in market cap by the end of Q2 2024?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “Which cryptocurrency will rank higher on CoinMarketCap by June 30, 2024?”
Options: Token Rho, Token Sigma

9. Interest Rates

Predict changes in interest rates for key countries.

Example: “Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at the next meeting?”
Options: Yes / No
Example: “How will the European Central Bank change the interest rate in September 2024?”
Options: Increase by 50+ basis points, Increase by 25 basis points, No change, Decrease by 25 basis points, Decrease by 50+ basis points
Example: “Will the Bank of England cut interest rates by at least 0.25% before the end of 2024?”
Options: Yes / No

Polls Prediction Market Cycles (Stages)

The Polls Prediction Market operates through several distinct stages:

1. Upcoming Stage

During this stage, the user can see key information:

Name, description, and useful links of the specific Poll
Voting requirements (User Types and Levels) for those eligible to predict the outcome of this Poll,
Voting requirements (User Types and Levels) for validators. Note: if you predict the outcome, you will lose the ability to validate this specific Binary/Categorical Prediction Market.
Determined Seed Pool.
Timing (Date and Time) — when the Poll becomes active for predictions

Users can prepare but cannot predict yet.

2. Voting Stage

During this stage, eligible users have the opportunity to predict and:

View the number of votes and ORI Pool distribution for each of the options, as well as recent votes (when they were made and for which of the options)
Check the limits, choose the outcome to make a prediction, and choose the amount of ORI for this prediction.
After accepting the user’s prediction, the summary will be shown. Users may cancel the prediction via the “Cancel” button and be charged a fee.

Prediction Cancellation Option for Polls

Users can cancel their predictions during the “Voting” stage of the Binary & Categorical Prediction Markets. This option involves paying a progressive cancellation fee that depends on how close to the end of the “Voting” phase users are. Here’s how it works:

Free cancellation within the first 5 minutes after vote cancellation.
Once an event date is added, the cancellation fee starts at 10% of the pooled ORI and increases over time.
The closer you are to an event date, the higher the fee.
The cancellation fee is 90% of the pooled ORI on the last day before the event.
If an event date changes, the fee is automatically recalculated.
If an event date is set to “TBA”, cancellation is free until an event date is defined.

This fee structure is implemented as a safeguard to maintain the voting process’s integrity and discourage impulsive or non-committal voting behaviors.

3. Freeze Stage

Predictions are closed during this stage. Users cannot vote and cancel their predictions while awaiting the event's outcome. The Freeze Stage typically begins at a predetermined time before the event occurs — this could be hours or days in advance, depending on the Poll’s settings.

This stage ensures fairness by preventing last-minute predictions that could be influenced by insider information or sudden developments just before the event.

For example, if the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates on September 15th at 2:00 PM, the Freeze Stage for the related Poll might begin on September 14th at 2:00 PM, closing predictions 24 hours before the announcement.

Note: Some Polls may not have a Freeze Stage. The presence and duration of the Freeze Stage depend on the type of Binary/Categorical Prediction Market and its specific rules.

4. In Progress Stage

The event outcome is determined during this stage. Users cannot make new predictions. This period covers the time when the event is actively occurring until the outcome is officially announced.

Continuing the previous example, from September 15th at 2:00 PM, when the Federal Reserve begins its announcement until the official decision on interest rates is released, the Poll is in the In Progress Stage.

This stage allows the event to unfold without any influence from ongoing predictions, ensuring that the outcome reflects the actual event without bias.

5. Validation Stage

During this stage, the correct outcome is suggested; then, the validators must vote on whether they agree OR disagree with the decision. After voting, the validation process continues until a delta is reached.

Note: Validation Delta — the difference required in validator votes to determine whether an answer is correct or not. This difference can be either agreement or disagreement. When the delta is reached, it signifies a consensus level among validators, leading to either a re-selection of the correct outcome or confirmation of the initially selected outcome.

Users who predict this Poll are waiting for the final result.

6. Finished Stage

The final result is determined, and rewards are distributed. Users can see the results of their prediction, whether successful or not. They can see how many ORIs were won due to a successful prediction. Amount of reputation was earned or lost.

Step-by-Step Guide

Check out a detailed guide to navigate the Poll Prediction Markets and place your predictions confidently.

1. Prepare your prediction on Upcoming Stage

As a future predictor in the Upcoming Stage, you can:

Review the Name and Description of the market to understand what the Poll is about.
Check Key Dates for each Stage of the Poll to plan your participation accordingly.
Check Voting requirements for predictors and validators.

After understanding the terms of the Poll and the sources based on which the outcome proposed for validation will be formed, you can:

Review the Seed Pool (if there is one) to understand the additional rewards that will be distributed to predictors.
Use any provided useful links to deepen your understanding and help you decide on your prediction.

By thoroughly preparing during the Upcoming Stage, you enhance your ability to make informed predictions in the Polls Prediction Market.

2. Ready, set, predict!

During the Voting stage, users have the opportunity to make their predictions. In order to make an informed prediction:

Look at the time when the Poll goes into the Freeze\In Progress Stage stage(depending on the specific Poll) to predict the outcome in time.
Go through the voting limit, choose an option, and decide what amount of ORI you are ready to contribute to your prediction.
Predict by pressing “Place your vote”. Remember — by voting, you will lose the ability to validate.

3. Wait for the outcome

After the prediction is made, you can:

Check Vote Summary.
Observe and analyze “Recent votes” that are made by other users.
Look through Pool distribution (check how votes\ORIs are distributed relative to the options).
Wait for the outcome, which will be determined as correct and will be validated by the validators.

4. Check ORI and reputation gained or work on the mistakes

After the Poll has ended (passed into the Finished stage):

Look at the Vote result.
Check how validators vote at the Agreement scale.
If your prediction was correct — Congrats! Сontinue in the same vein.
If your prediction wasn`t correct — Maybe you’re just unlucky this time. Analyze mistakes and practice more.

Conclusion

Introducing Binary & Categorical Prediction Markets marks a significant milestone for Oriole Insights. This feature enriches the platform by offering a more comprehensive array of prediction opportunities and strengthens community engagement through decentralized validation.

Participating in Polls contributes to a more dynamic and informed market environment, leveraging collective intelligence to predict significant events and trends in the cryptocurrency and financial sectors.

We encourage all predictors to test Polls! Your feedback is invaluable in refining the platform, and active participants will be rewarded through the Oriole Insights $1,500 & 1,000,000 ORI Galaxy Campaign!

Thank you for being a part of the Oriole Insights community. Together, we are shaping the future of predictive markets.